Jack Burkman

26 Sep, 2008

Poor Obama. He’s been through it all.

Posted by: Jack Burkman In: Politics

I hate to use this analogy having lost family members to cancer, but truth is truth, and dealing with the Clintons is the political equivalent of battling a malignant tumor. First there were the weeks leading up to Super Tuesday where Bill Clinton tried to turn out every racist backwoodsman in the South. His efforts backfired, the Kennedys plunged in to back Obama, and Hillary slipped into second place. But the tumor fought hard, as tumors do, and the race went on and on.

The toughest part for Obama was that the national media intervened more directly than ever in the primaries, keeping the race alive long after it was over, simply for their own selfish ratings pleasures. CNN found a new lease on life and even MSNBC for a time seemed to rise from the dead. Super delegates were turned into Hollywood celebs and suddenly the “popular vote” had significance, something Obama may not have realized before the race began.Finally, in June, with even political junkies growing weary of watching the “race,” the networks let go, Hillary laid down her arms, and the tumor receded. Watching Fox and MSNBC run around Puerto Rico–a small tropical island–and interview people had to be something of a bizarre nadir in American politics.But for Obama there is suddenly the prospect of more bad news, as his political doctors convey the sobering reality that the tumor may return, and he must continue to deal with Team Hillary. Two scenarios seem equally plausible and equally unpleasant. The first is that the Clintons will simply walk away from the ticket in the fall, leaving a party divided and Obama an easy target for McCain. Hillary’s hope would be that Obama goes down decisively, Democratic insiders quietly vow “to not try the black thing again,” and she is somehow the Phoenix rising from the ashes of 2012. The second is that she will pressure, cajole, threaten and bully her way on to the 2008 ticket.

This second path seems more and more likely. Within minutes of the news of her impending surrender, Lanny Davis, her longtime cable news champion and cohort, had put up a website whose sole stated purpose was to make her the Veep. The media of course would love this. Not only would they have Obama–who represents the fulfillment of a kind of longstanding affirmative action fantasy–but they would have their ultimate gal and Bill as well.

For Obama, this situation involves the cancer moving to stage four, as he would not only have to confront a hostile electoral map but he would have as a partner America’s single most divisive political figure with the possible–and I stress possible–exception of Ann Coulter. Perhaps the worst-case scenario for Obama would be that this ticket would actually win, leaving him saddled with a Vice-President with her own completely independent national media platform, a Vice-President’s spouse who believes he is still President, and eight or nine news networks hungry for a story about any kind of rift between the President and the Veep. The networks did not get their much-craved brokered Democratic National Convention, equipped with Chicago-68-style brawls, the news equivalent of sexual fantasy. But the prospect of having their two highest-rating politicians–Obama and HRC– on one ticket is almost too tantalizing to contemplate without some form of shortness of breath. But Obama will face more than just media pressure to put HRC on the ticket. In Pennsylvania, Gov. Eddie Rendell, these days the power broker’s power broker, will soon inform Obama if he has not already that his willingness to work for the Democratic ticket in Pennsylvania will be a function of whether Hillary is on it. Obama would have little choice but to heed the sage counsel of fast Eddie. Were he to lose Pennsylvania, the electoral map would become a slope of something like 80 degrees, instead of the already steep 70.

There are two probably insurmountable challenges associated with Hillary Clinton on the ticket: she is an uncontrollable megalomaniac and her husband is an uncontrollable megalomaniac. The Clintons are disciplined and would stay on script as long as they write the script. Can anyone imagine the Obama campaign emailing talking points to Hillary and Bill every morning?How Obama walks this tightrope I haven’t a clue. He will probably be forced to put her on the ticket and induce her/them to cooperate during the campaign by offering expanded powers for the Veep’s office if they win.

This will be fun to watch.

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Jack Burkman Jack Burkman, founder and president of Burkman Associates LLC, is one of Washington’s premier political consultants and strategists. His firm is widely known here and abroad for its ability to solve the most complex of Washington problems. Read More ›